Primary Results: Republicans, Primary Results: Democrats, Looking Ahead

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Primary Results: Republicans

Here are the results of the New Hampshire primary:

Donald Trump 35%
John Kasich 16%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Marco Rubio 10.5%
Chris Christie 8%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Ben Carson 2%

With few exceptions, the results essentially mirrored the polls. Trump has consistently led the New Hampshire polls since July. Recent polls indicating a surge for Ohio Governor John Kasich were spot on. Here's my analysis:
 

  • Since 1976 no one has won the GOP nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. If that pattern holds, then either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the nominee.
     
  • GOP primary turnout set a record, just like in Iowa. Clearly, Republicans are excited about the 2016 elections.
     
  • According to one analysis, the Bush campaign and its associated Super PACs spent more than $36 million in New Hampshire, nearly $1,200 per vote. Ted Cruz got the best bang for the buck, spending just $18 per vote.
     
  • Exit poll results should put to rest the left-wing narrative that Trump supporters are ignorant, knuckle-dragging Neanderthals. Trump carried college-educated voters and he even won among those with post-graduate degrees.
     
  • Here's something that should worry Republican elites: 64% of GOP primary voters said they supported a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. When Trump suggested a temporary ban after the San Bernardino attacks, some GOP candidates and leaders rushed to condemn him. Some even said, as Obama did, "That's not who we are."
     
  • Nearly half of Republican primary voters (47%) said they felt betrayed by Republican politicians.

    The disconnect of the political class and its failure to confront Barack Obama in any meaningful way may explain Trump's success. Republican voters appear to be looking beyond the Republican Party for an answer.
     

  • Ted Cruz finished a respectable third, given that the New Hampshire electorate is not nearly as conservative as Iowa. (In fact, a recent Gallup study finds New Hampshire is America's least religious state.) Cruz has the resources to run a national campaign and is well-positioned to compete in upcoming multi-state primaries.
     
  • John Kasich's strong showing scrambles the race for the "establishment lane." Chris Christie has returned to New Jersey and is reportedly going to drop out. And, having finished ahead of Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush certainly won't drop out now.

    Speaking of Marco Rubio, he took full responsibility for his fifth place showing. He told supporters, "Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It's on me. It's on me. I did not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this: That will never happen again." That is smart politics and it says a lot about him.

    Primary Results: Democrats

    Last night Bernie Sanders made history as the first American Jew to win a presidential primary.

    In 1992, Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire to a neighboring state's senator. He spun his second place showing as a victory, declaring himself "The Comeback Kid." There was none of the Clinton magic for Hillary last night. Here are some quick observations:
     

  • Sanders' victory was resounding -- 60% to 38%.
     
  • Sanders won every demographic except those over 65 and those making more than $200,000 a year.
     
  • Women, evidently willing to risk hell, voted for Sanders 55% to 44%. You may recall that former Secretary of State Madeline Albright suggested a few days ago that there was a "special place in hell" for women who didn't vote for Mrs. Clinton.
     
  • Millennials voted for Sanders by incredible margins -- in excess of 80%.
     
  • Asked to name their top candidate quality, a plurality (34%) said "honesty." Of the voters who said honesty was most important to them, they broke 91% to 5% for Sanders.

    Some pundits are attempting to spin Clinton's loss by dismissing New Hampshire as "Sanders' backyard." But that doesn't hold up. Let's back up a year and look at the polls then.

    Four polls were conducted last February, and Hillary Clinton enjoyed an average lead of 40 points. Sanders was registering just 10% against the "inevitable" nominee, Hillary Clinton.

    When Mrs. Clinton ran before in 2008, she won the New Hampshire primary with 39% of the vote and just over 112,000 votes. Now, after four years as Obama's secretary of state, she got 38% and just under 91,000 votes.

    Looking Ahead

    Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will face each other in a debate tomorrow night. The next battle for the Democrat nomination will take place in Nevada on February 20th.

    The next Republican debate is February 13th, followed by the South Carolina primary on February 20th.